Mock Draft

Mock Drafts are Mock Drafts.... but sometimes I wish they weren't. Basically, the team below I drafted recently in a mock draft, and based on my standards, I love this team.

Is it perfect? Course not. I could have passed on Jason Bay and grabbed Miguel Tejada instead. I also may have been too eager to grab Russell Martin so early, but for me to have grabbed two Phillies before any other players and still enjoy the team I drafted, things must have gone right. Chipper Jones fell down to me without having to select him a round early. I got my OBP guys in Burrell and Willingham, nabbed Taveras to make-up for my slow OBP guys, and got three excellent closers without having to really overpay. My staff seems very solid with a mixture of proven veterans and young studs and I got some undervalued bats in Derrek Lee and Billy Butler. I also managed to draft the steroid king in Barry Bonds.

Round: 1
** (7) - Chase Utley 2B

Round: 2
** (14) - Ryan Howard 1B

Round: 3
** (27) - Carlos Lee LF

Round: 4
** (34) - Josh Beckett SP F

Round: 5
** (47) - Chipper Jones 3B

Round: 6
** (54) - Russell Martin C

Round: 7
** (67) - Derrek Lee 1B

Round: 8
** (74) - Chris Young SP

Round: 9
** (87) - Jason Bay LF

Round: 10
** (94) - James Shields SP

Round: 11
** (107) - Huston Street RP

Round: 12
** (114) - Edgar Renteria SS

Round: 13
** (127) - Tim Hudson SP

Round: 14
** (134) - Rickie Weeks 2B

Round: 15
** (147) - Pat Burrell LF

Round: 16
** (154) - Jason Isringhausen RP

Round: 17
** (167) - Jeff Francis SP

Round: 18
** (174) - Greg Maddux SP

Round: 19
** (187) - Josh Willingham LF

Round: 20
** (194) - Willy Taveras CF

Round: 21
** (207) - Mark Buehrle SP

Round: 22
** (214) - Brandon Lyon RP

Round: 23
** (227) - Billy Butler DH

Round: 24
** (234) - Homer Bailey SP

Round: 25
** (247) - Barry Bonds LF

I Think Aaron Harang Is Awesome

And yet this is what keeps me from drafting him...

Why do I dislike Dusty Baker? Oh, this is why?

Who knew I'd base my fantasy draft picks based on a manager? Harang will be overworked to death by the time June rolls around, I'd bet my scholarships on it!

Matthew Berry, I Doth Hate Thee, Too.

Mr. Berry you used to be cool. What happened?

Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves: Know what I am? Not chipper about Chipper! (Pause.) If it makes you feel better, I'm groaning too. He's another guy who will put up good numbers, but not what he did last year. It's all about value.

I think I need to print this blog out for him. And a stat sheet. And send him a valentine... or not.

Happy Valentine's Day! (Not to you, Matthew Berry!)

Over/Under

There was a question on an ESPN Fan Board about who was the most overrated and underrated players in MLB. Sticking to batters only, here's what I found out, which seems to be the opposite of many people.


Over/Under on Batters

Overrated - here are ten players with a career SLG under .450 and a OBP under.350 and yet are given way to much hype as good or great players... meaning these players are actually quite crappy in the long run. (and one was voted MVP last year)
1. Khalil Greene
2. Jose Reyes
3. Juan Pierre
4. Jimmy Rollins
5. Mike Cameron
6. Shane Victorino
7. Brandon Phillips
8. J. J. Hardy
9. Michael Young
10. Carl Crawford

I also want to note that Torrii Hunter has a career OBP of .324 and is a great player if what you are looking for is outs.

My Underrated: If you think I'm crazy, look up their career stats on baseball-reference.com
- J.D. Drew
- Chipper Jones
- Derrek Lee
- Adam Dunn
- Pat Burrell

Another Odd News Story

This single-engine plane actually crashed just a half-mile west of the Florida State University campus, hitting a power line and causes a blackout for the area and the campus. I actually heard it thud while in the student union and the explosion of the power shorting out. But on the bright side, the pilot survived!

Reduce, Reuse, and Recycle - Our NL East Boys

Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are the overvalued SS this year. No, cut that. EVERY YEAR!!!
Look at the 162 game career averages for these two and my boy Hanley:

OBP/SLG/XBH/RCperG

Jose Reyes: .33o/.426/58/5.3
Jimmy Rollins: .331/.441/68/5.4
Hanley Ramirez: .386/.562/81/7.2

Now tell me how the heck Rollins deserves the 2007 MVP when he basically was a whole lot worse last year than Hanley Ramirez, let alone Matt Holliday. Yeah, I'm still frickin pissed!!!

Now, why does this matter? For one, it is much more likely for a player to be able to steal a base or score a run if they are ACTUALLY getting on base. It is also more likely for a player to accumulate more RBI if they are hitting more than just singles. I can't tell you what their batting averages are going to end up, but that is why sabermetrics is so important and why BA is such a horrible stat to base projections on.

And with the 1st pick overall: Matt Lindstrom

Ok, not really. But that's how lost I am right now until I figure out where the heck I draft. 1st? 5th? 12th? If I pick first, it's A-Rod. But if I pick 2nd, should I really pick Hanley? I'm a huge Marlins fan, but I think he just might be overvalued. Do I care? Yeah, cause it's the difference between my sorry ass having a Philly as my stud in Utley, or going high with a Marlins on a pretty crappy team, according to ESPN. Marlins are probably a lot better than the "experts" give them credit for.

Lindstrom is gonna get me a bunch of holds, plus he's a Marlin, plus he's a Mormon, and he is next in line to be closer if Gregg struggles or gets hurt. Let's see, I'd take him in round... 19, missionary age, why not? Upside and everything. and he's a Marlin. and a Mormon. and he throws 100mph. triple bonus! :)

seriously, I could be drafting a Philly first in Utley. What it takes to win a fantasy league is killing me, and there isn't even money involved. At least I'm not taking a Yankee other than A-Rod. Jeter is the most overrated player of this decade. He sucks!!!! He, NOT A-ROD, is more a reason for the Yankee failures than any one else in their line up. Oh, and of course, the Yankee pitching has been crap for a long while.

More food for thought, though Id rather eat some on my college budget. I'm hungry. Chips, soda, and... class. LATER!

I really want to know if anyone reads this

If you do, e-mail me just to let me know, cause that would be SOOO cool! Just don't let anyone in my ESPN or Yahoo fantasy leagues know.

I'm starting with the Brewers???

My response to the ESPN fantasy predictions for the Milwaukee Brewers

As for Brewers players, I love Fielder and Braun, not super high on Hart, though he did have the 6th best OPS among NL OF last year and 4th best SLG among NL OF, so maybe I really am. Gallardo over Sheets? by 5 rounds!?!?! umm... no.

I think Weeks can be good, but not so much as a fantasy player. His OBP last year was .374, (compared to .326 by Dan Uggla, whom I still love only cuz im a huge Marlins fan) which means he might score you a few more runs than your avg player, but I'll try getting Utley or Phillips instead a little sooner in my drafts.

In addition, my reasoning for Sheets over Gallardo is that, since assuming injuries is just stupid (I haven't studied which ones linger and which one's don't yet, but I don't really care, either.) that Sheets is, well, the better pitcher and has better numbers. It's value, and Gallardo's value is too high and Sheets is nice and low after a couple of injury riddled years.

Third Basemen

Here are the rankings of the top third baseman according the Yahoo Big Board on Jan. 26 (and draft position from a mock draft from profantasybaseball.com in the ()'s )

1. (1) Alex Rodriguez - New York Yankees
6. (10) David Wright - New York Mets
9. (8) Miguel Cabrera - Detroit Tigers
13. (7) Ryan Braun - Milwaukee Brewers (Yes, I know he is in left field now, but it's the eligibility that counts here)
34. (62) Chone Figgins - Anaheim Angels (Yes, I still refer to them as being from Anaheim... and wtf is Figgins doing rated this high? cuz he can play 2b, too? who the F cares!)
35. (45) Aramis Ramirez - Chicago Cubs
48. (75) Chipper Jones - Atlanta Braves
53. (57) Garrett Atkins - Colorado Rockies

What is the point of posting this for the zero readers that read this? Because I will be playing in a fantasy league using OBP and SLG rather than BA, which is the worst way to evaluate a hitter and yet is the most common way people do.

Chipper Jones is my 2008 pick of the year. He is considered to be "too old" and "too fragile" to be a fantasy star, yet continues to put up numbers similar to, and in some areas, better than the likes of David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Aramis Ramirez,and Ryan Braun. The only 3B that I can put above him without much controversy is Alex Rodriguez, and even Chipper had a better 06 season. Need proof? Here are some numbers for you:

2007 OBP/SLG/XBH
Jones: .425/.604/75
A-Rod: .422/.645/85
Wright: .416/.546/73
Cabrera: .401/.565/74
Braun: .370/.634/66 (22 more while in AAA)
Ramirez: .366/.549/75

162 Game Career Avg.
Jones: .403/.546/72
A-Rod: .389/.578/80
Wright: .388/.533/73
Cabrera: ..388/.542/74
Braun: (He was a rookie! so see above)
Ramirez: .336/.500/69

And here's another stat that may or may not mean anything, but I find it to be amusing. It's called "RC/G" or "Runs Created/Game" meaning that this is what a team full of that player, i.e. 9 Chipper Jones' or 9 A-Rods (HOLY CRAP WOULD THAT BE AWESOME!) with and average defense would score per game.
RC/G: 2007/Career
Jones: 9.5/8.2
A-Rod: 10.4/8.4
Wright: 9.0/7.7
Cabrera: 8.3/7.5
Braun: 8.4/2007 is his career!
Ramirez: 7.3/5.8

So according to this stat, a team of 9 Chippers would on average beat a team of 9 Miguel Cabreras 9.5 - 8.3, more than a full run. If anyone is wondering, Babe Ruth had a career average of 12.6 RC/G and had a season best 17.7 in 1920! How this stat is created I don't know, but most of my numbers come from baseball-reference.com, which is probably the most reliable place to find baseball statistics out there.

Just Food For Thought...