Back In Action

Now that I don't have Fire Joe Morgan to read all the time, and I miss baseball, I'm gonna give blogging bout baseball another shot. Plus I got an e-mail the other day reminding myself I have this blog, so visit http://www.peterrobertcasey.com and thank him if you like the crap I write. It's not like I'm even trying to be controversial, I just like baseball ALOT.

As for today's most hyperbolic quote of the day I found this paragraph on the Hot Stove Blog for mlb.com regarding Peavy trade talks with Atlanta, which earlier had included Yunel Escobar, the Braves SS.
'A month ago the Braves were willing to provide the Padres with a package highlighted by Escobar. But because they used Brent Lillibridge to acquire Javier Vazquez last week, they no longer are willing to entertain thoughts of dealing Escobar, who one veteran Braves player considers, "the best shortstop in the National League."'

Really? Yunel Escobar is better than Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Stephen Drew, Rafael Furcal (when healthy) AND Troy Tulowitzki???? And none of those is even as good as the Marlins own SS Hanley Ramirez. I really wonde rwho that veteran Braves player is. For the Florida Marlins sake, I hope he becomes an assistant to the GM for the Braves when he retires.

I Know This Is Over A Week Late

But.....

The Royals took advantage of the Marlins all game and cashed in during a fourth inning that featured sloppy play and a two-out, bases-loaded throwing error by Hanley Ramirez that came after starter Andrew Miller intentionally walked Tony Pena Jr. to face Royals starter Brett Tomko.

Directions: Find what is wrong with the above paragraph.

Still need help? OK.

.....


....



"Andrew Miller intentionally walked Tony Pena Jr."

Tony Pena Jr.'s 2008 stats:

.162/.184/.206 and 0 HRs and an OPS+ of 6!


Needless to say the Marlins lost this game.

The Knuckleball

I just added Tim Wakefield on my AL-only Yahoo league. He's a knuckleball pitcher and he's pretty awesome at it. But how do you throw a knuckleball? Simple. You google "how to throw a knuckleball" and you get an answer from ehow.com.

How to Throw a Knuckleball

By eHow Sports & Fitness Editor

Dig the index and middle finger into the ball when throwing a knuckleball

Rate: (229 Ratings)

When you've got this pitch under control, hitters have no idea when to swing. When it's out of control, though, even the pitcher doesn't know where the ball is going! Here are a few easy steps to fool your hitters.

Instructions

Difficulty: Easy

Things You’ll Need:

• Baseballs

Step1

Grip the baseball by clenching the top of the ball with the tips of your index, middle and ring fingers just below the seams. Dig the tips of your fingers deep into the ball.

Step2

Place your thumb below the ball to give it support. Keep your pinkie off to the side.

Step3

Go into your windup. Remember to pivot and shift your body weight from the back foot forward toward home plate.

Step4

Throw the ball toward home, but don't snap your wrist - keep it stable, eliminating as much spin as possible.

Step5

Follow through. Extend all fingers toward home plate as you release the pitch. Your feet should be parallel at the end of the pitch, and your throwing arm should come across the front of your body.

Cool, huh!
I personally first learned about the knuckleball because the Marlins had a pitcher named Dennis Springer who threw one. That was in like 1999 or 2000. I don't recall the Marlins having a knuckleball pitcher since, but I could be wrong. They had a screwball pitcher for a couple years, though.

This is how Brian Sabean decided to spend $126 million

On a middle reliever...

SAN FRANCISCO -- Barry Zito calmly accepted his demotion to the bullpen Monday and vowed that he soon would rejoin the Giants' starting rotation, although manager Bruce Bochy didn't offer a timetable for that event.

Bochy announced the move one day after Zito's worst performance of the season, a three-inning, eight-run outing in a 10-1 loss to Cincinnati. That dropped Zito's record to a Major League-worst 0-6. He also owns a 7.53 ERA and a .336 opponents' batting average, well above the respective National League averages of 4.06 and .255.

Heck, even FJM had a whole post making fun of a blogger trying really horribly to defend Sabean.

On a different note, however, I found a link on baseballprospectus.com to this study on how different pitches affect the arm and elbow.

Let's Play MadLibs!

Basically, this was already was cleaned up on BaseballProspectus.com, but you can have the joy of filling in whatever you feel like. I already have:


Cole Hamels (0 DXL)
Sometimes, you just let the readers speak. B.H. wrote: "Charlie Manuel [expletive deleted] has lost his mind. Five of five games this season he's left Cole Hamels in the game beyond 100 [expletive deleted] pitches. Never mind that he's never had five starts over 100 pitches back to back (though there was that equally [expletive deleted] run of four starts near/over 110 pitches last May) or that tonight against Milwaukee, aka the [expletive deleted] lefty killers, after rolling the dice and getting Cole to have a successful seventh (racking up two more Ks), he sends Hamels back out with 110 [expletive deleted] pitches with Braun, Fielder and Hart. Give me a [expletive deleted] break. Instead of leaving the game with a 4-3 lead, Braun doubles on three pitches and Fielder follows it up with a HR seven pitches after that. 121 pitches on the night! Never mind that we're talking Cole [expletive deleted] Hamels. He who was rushed to the majors at the first sign of health two years ago to maximize his value. He of the numerous arm injuries. He who has never gone 121 pitches in a game before... Against two lefty killers and a guy who hit a HR on him already that evening. This is two consecutive starts now that [expletive deleted] Manuel has left Hamels in for an inning too long (against the Mets it was trotting him out to load the bases (the last on an intentional walk) before pulling him... after which all inherited runners scored. To say the least, it's a bit [expletive deleted] frustrating."

4-Man Rotations

I came upon this very interesting article in the Washington Post about how much better teams would be if they just took the risk and went with a 4-man rotation.

E-mail Fun

Ken Tremendous (Michael Schur) of FJM and Keith Law of ESPN.com are both awesome in my book. So why not try and coax a personal e-mail from both of them. I'll start with KT:

I love how in your latest post u misspelled "pitching" as "picthing" when trying to imitate Joe Morgan. Brilliant! (even if not on purpose) not concetrate, but hey you tried.

Also, you responded to my friend Andrew Walker, and now he is the cock on the block (should have said walk, but w/e) as he stated, so if it's not too much trouble to ask and I won't ever again (ok don't remember that for next time) could you respond with a "hi" or something so I could show my friends I got an e-mail from the writer for "The Office" (oh and of course the firejoemorgan.com genius)
Thanks!

Go Florida Marlins!

-Alex

And here is the response I got in my e-mail from none other than KT himself:

I'm not sure being the "cock on the block" is something to brag about.

Also: hi.

And thanks for reading.

KT

So not exactly what I was hoping for, but a response is a response. From Ken Tremendous!

The next one is from Keith Law, writer for ESPN.com and apparent FJM fan on Facebook. This is of course a Facebook message both to and from:

A Fan of Yours

Between Keith Law and You

Today at 1:01am

I was going through the FJM Fan List and saw "Kieth Law" and your pic and was pleasantly surprised. You don't of course know me, but I just wanted to let you know that in a world of insane and unreasonable journalists, you are by far my favorite (Rob Neyer being a close second.) I just think it's so cool that you are actually on Facebook and apparently read FJM.
Your Fan
- Alex (Go Marlins!)

Keith Law

Add as Friend

Today at 11:15pm

Report Message

Alex:
Yes, that's me, and I'm a big FJM fan. I hate fatuous, ignorant baseball writing, and I love the way they dismantle it.
Thanks for the kind words.
Keith




WHO IS GOOD?!?!? ME, THAT'S WHO!!!

Brian Bannister Update

B. Bannister (KAN)

9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 K, Win

vs MIN
Final

Blackouts

There has been recent talk about changing the boundaries for blackouts or getting rid of them altogether. I read an interesting article on Yahoo the today talking about the subject. My response as I sit watching a Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees game in Tallahassee, Florida... GET RID OF THE DANG STUPID BLACKOUTS!!! Tonight's Marlins-Nationals game cannot be seen on Sun Sports in Tallahassee because the stupid cable company doesn't show 55 Marlins games a year. I don't care about the Rays. I don't really like them or hate them, just don't care to watch them. The team I like are the Florida Marlins, and I want to watch them!!!

The Brian Bannisters

Apparently can't hit but can sure as hell pitch. That's the name of my mixed-league fantasy team on ESPN.com, after the great Royals pitcher Brian Bannister. In fact, Mr. Bannister reward me with this 2-hit shutout he threw against the Detroit Tigers.

And if you need any more explanation why Bannister is my favorite non-Marlin baseball player not named Miguel Cabrera, this article is one reason why. This one is another reason why, and it even has three parts. Baseball Prospectus even did an interview of their own.

Opening Day

Well now that the season has begun, life is back to normal. They teach in elementary school that the Earth has four seasons: Summer, Spring, Autumn and Winter. That is false. There is baseball season and not baseball season. Simple as that.

Now to look at how my fantasy team did on Opening Day.
Studs:
David Riske: 1IP no hits or walks or Ks - got the save after Eric Gagne blew a 3-run lead and had trouble throwing strikes. Looks like I hit gold on guessing who will be a closer by May.
Gary Sheffield: 1-5, 4BB and 1 RBI - seeing we use OBP, this was awesome. Include him with Miguel Cabrera who also hit a home run
Brian Roberts: 2-2 2BB 1SB/1CS and Run scored - I didn't get to watch any of this game, but it's great to see my 2B off to a great start and being "aggressive" on the basepaths, even if it counts as 0 NSB on the scoreboard.
Josh Willingham: 1-4 with a 2run HR - it was off Johann Santana, nuff said.

Duds:
Rafael Betancourt: 1.2IP 3H, 1BB, 1K, 0ER and the win - the win was lucky, but that doesn't help the WHIP at all
Matt Diaz: 1-9 1 RBI - there is a reason he was a 27th round pick for my bench. Hopefully he can turn it around, seeing as it is only 9 ABs.
David Ortiz: 0-7 2BB 1run - Yes, it was in Japan a week earlier, but it was still on openers and not good at all
Peter Moylan: 1.2IP 1H 1ER 1HR 2K - He has pitched better than his ERA would show, but gave up the game-winning HR to Ryan Zimmerman. I'm not too worried.

In other news, I'll give a shout out to my Marlins, who got 4 great bullpen innings from Ricky Nolasco and Matt Lindstrom. Too bad the Marlins signed pitching dud Mark Hendrickson. The innings eater pitched only 5 innings. Isn't that his only purpose? Can't wait to see Chris Volstad in the rotation come June or July. Marlins lost 7-2 to the Mets if you haven't heard already.

Never Do a Facebook Draft

The first 14 rounds of this draft were done on Facebook so that we didn't have rosters with 30 autopicked players. 14 rounds took about 14 days. NEVER DO A FACEBOOK DRAFT IF YOU HAVE OVER 6 LEAGUE MEMBERS!!!

I have two major fantasy baseball teams, the rest are just fillers. One is AL-Only on ESPN, the other, which I shall mention here, is a mixed-league Roto league with 12 members and 6x6 scoring (Runs,RBI,HR,OBP,SLG,NetSB and Wins,Saves,ERA,WHIP,Ks,Holds) and a 30 acquisition limit.

And this is what I drafted: (People who I have already replaced will have replacements in ()

Round 1: Miguel Cabrera
Round 2: David Ortiz
Round 3: Carlos Beltran
Round 4: Troy Tulowitzki
Round 5: Cole Hamels
Round 6: Brian Roberts
Round 7: Gary Sheffield
Round 8: Paul Konerko
Round 9: Takashi Saito
Round 10: Matt Cain
Round 11: Hideki Matsui
Round 12: Rafael Soriano
Round 13: Jeremy Hermida (put on D.L. replaced by Ian Kennedy)
Round 14: Dustin McGowan
Round 15: Jeremy Bonderman
Round 16: Kelly Johnson
Round 17: Josh Willingham
Round 18: Jack Cust
Round 19: Jeremy Accardo
Round 20: Brian Wilson
Round 21: Rafael Betancourt
Round 22: J.D. Drew
Round 23: Carlos Ruiz
Round 24: Jon Lester (traded for Travis Buck)
Round 25: Nomar Garciaparra (replaced by Jose Bautista)
Round 26: David Riske
Round 27: Matt Diaz
Round 28: Brian Bannister
Round 29: Adam Jones
Round 30: Shawn Hill (put on D.L. replaced by Peter Moylan)

Analysis: Most of the picks I'm very happy with with the possible exception of about 3. I regret having taken Matt Cain over Rich Hill, but I was feeling sick that night and didn't want to hold up the draft. Lester over Harden now looks like a complete bust and Garciaparra is a useless pick, especially when I went against my draft strategy of hogging DHs, where I could've taken Millar. Everything else I am happy with, even Konerko over Smoltz, at least for now...
And Adam Jones in round 29 is the steal of the draft bar NONE.

Mock Draft

Mock Drafts are Mock Drafts.... but sometimes I wish they weren't. Basically, the team below I drafted recently in a mock draft, and based on my standards, I love this team.

Is it perfect? Course not. I could have passed on Jason Bay and grabbed Miguel Tejada instead. I also may have been too eager to grab Russell Martin so early, but for me to have grabbed two Phillies before any other players and still enjoy the team I drafted, things must have gone right. Chipper Jones fell down to me without having to select him a round early. I got my OBP guys in Burrell and Willingham, nabbed Taveras to make-up for my slow OBP guys, and got three excellent closers without having to really overpay. My staff seems very solid with a mixture of proven veterans and young studs and I got some undervalued bats in Derrek Lee and Billy Butler. I also managed to draft the steroid king in Barry Bonds.

Round: 1
** (7) - Chase Utley 2B

Round: 2
** (14) - Ryan Howard 1B

Round: 3
** (27) - Carlos Lee LF

Round: 4
** (34) - Josh Beckett SP F

Round: 5
** (47) - Chipper Jones 3B

Round: 6
** (54) - Russell Martin C

Round: 7
** (67) - Derrek Lee 1B

Round: 8
** (74) - Chris Young SP

Round: 9
** (87) - Jason Bay LF

Round: 10
** (94) - James Shields SP

Round: 11
** (107) - Huston Street RP

Round: 12
** (114) - Edgar Renteria SS

Round: 13
** (127) - Tim Hudson SP

Round: 14
** (134) - Rickie Weeks 2B

Round: 15
** (147) - Pat Burrell LF

Round: 16
** (154) - Jason Isringhausen RP

Round: 17
** (167) - Jeff Francis SP

Round: 18
** (174) - Greg Maddux SP

Round: 19
** (187) - Josh Willingham LF

Round: 20
** (194) - Willy Taveras CF

Round: 21
** (207) - Mark Buehrle SP

Round: 22
** (214) - Brandon Lyon RP

Round: 23
** (227) - Billy Butler DH

Round: 24
** (234) - Homer Bailey SP

Round: 25
** (247) - Barry Bonds LF

I Think Aaron Harang Is Awesome

And yet this is what keeps me from drafting him...

Why do I dislike Dusty Baker? Oh, this is why?

Who knew I'd base my fantasy draft picks based on a manager? Harang will be overworked to death by the time June rolls around, I'd bet my scholarships on it!

Matthew Berry, I Doth Hate Thee, Too.

Mr. Berry you used to be cool. What happened?

Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves: Know what I am? Not chipper about Chipper! (Pause.) If it makes you feel better, I'm groaning too. He's another guy who will put up good numbers, but not what he did last year. It's all about value.

I think I need to print this blog out for him. And a stat sheet. And send him a valentine... or not.

Happy Valentine's Day! (Not to you, Matthew Berry!)

Over/Under

There was a question on an ESPN Fan Board about who was the most overrated and underrated players in MLB. Sticking to batters only, here's what I found out, which seems to be the opposite of many people.


Over/Under on Batters

Overrated - here are ten players with a career SLG under .450 and a OBP under.350 and yet are given way to much hype as good or great players... meaning these players are actually quite crappy in the long run. (and one was voted MVP last year)
1. Khalil Greene
2. Jose Reyes
3. Juan Pierre
4. Jimmy Rollins
5. Mike Cameron
6. Shane Victorino
7. Brandon Phillips
8. J. J. Hardy
9. Michael Young
10. Carl Crawford

I also want to note that Torrii Hunter has a career OBP of .324 and is a great player if what you are looking for is outs.

My Underrated: If you think I'm crazy, look up their career stats on baseball-reference.com
- J.D. Drew
- Chipper Jones
- Derrek Lee
- Adam Dunn
- Pat Burrell

Another Odd News Story

This single-engine plane actually crashed just a half-mile west of the Florida State University campus, hitting a power line and causes a blackout for the area and the campus. I actually heard it thud while in the student union and the explosion of the power shorting out. But on the bright side, the pilot survived!

Reduce, Reuse, and Recycle - Our NL East Boys

Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are the overvalued SS this year. No, cut that. EVERY YEAR!!!
Look at the 162 game career averages for these two and my boy Hanley:

OBP/SLG/XBH/RCperG

Jose Reyes: .33o/.426/58/5.3
Jimmy Rollins: .331/.441/68/5.4
Hanley Ramirez: .386/.562/81/7.2

Now tell me how the heck Rollins deserves the 2007 MVP when he basically was a whole lot worse last year than Hanley Ramirez, let alone Matt Holliday. Yeah, I'm still frickin pissed!!!

Now, why does this matter? For one, it is much more likely for a player to be able to steal a base or score a run if they are ACTUALLY getting on base. It is also more likely for a player to accumulate more RBI if they are hitting more than just singles. I can't tell you what their batting averages are going to end up, but that is why sabermetrics is so important and why BA is such a horrible stat to base projections on.

And with the 1st pick overall: Matt Lindstrom

Ok, not really. But that's how lost I am right now until I figure out where the heck I draft. 1st? 5th? 12th? If I pick first, it's A-Rod. But if I pick 2nd, should I really pick Hanley? I'm a huge Marlins fan, but I think he just might be overvalued. Do I care? Yeah, cause it's the difference between my sorry ass having a Philly as my stud in Utley, or going high with a Marlins on a pretty crappy team, according to ESPN. Marlins are probably a lot better than the "experts" give them credit for.

Lindstrom is gonna get me a bunch of holds, plus he's a Marlin, plus he's a Mormon, and he is next in line to be closer if Gregg struggles or gets hurt. Let's see, I'd take him in round... 19, missionary age, why not? Upside and everything. and he's a Marlin. and a Mormon. and he throws 100mph. triple bonus! :)

seriously, I could be drafting a Philly first in Utley. What it takes to win a fantasy league is killing me, and there isn't even money involved. At least I'm not taking a Yankee other than A-Rod. Jeter is the most overrated player of this decade. He sucks!!!! He, NOT A-ROD, is more a reason for the Yankee failures than any one else in their line up. Oh, and of course, the Yankee pitching has been crap for a long while.

More food for thought, though Id rather eat some on my college budget. I'm hungry. Chips, soda, and... class. LATER!

I really want to know if anyone reads this

If you do, e-mail me just to let me know, cause that would be SOOO cool! Just don't let anyone in my ESPN or Yahoo fantasy leagues know.

I'm starting with the Brewers???

My response to the ESPN fantasy predictions for the Milwaukee Brewers

As for Brewers players, I love Fielder and Braun, not super high on Hart, though he did have the 6th best OPS among NL OF last year and 4th best SLG among NL OF, so maybe I really am. Gallardo over Sheets? by 5 rounds!?!?! umm... no.

I think Weeks can be good, but not so much as a fantasy player. His OBP last year was .374, (compared to .326 by Dan Uggla, whom I still love only cuz im a huge Marlins fan) which means he might score you a few more runs than your avg player, but I'll try getting Utley or Phillips instead a little sooner in my drafts.

In addition, my reasoning for Sheets over Gallardo is that, since assuming injuries is just stupid (I haven't studied which ones linger and which one's don't yet, but I don't really care, either.) that Sheets is, well, the better pitcher and has better numbers. It's value, and Gallardo's value is too high and Sheets is nice and low after a couple of injury riddled years.

Third Basemen

Here are the rankings of the top third baseman according the Yahoo Big Board on Jan. 26 (and draft position from a mock draft from profantasybaseball.com in the ()'s )

1. (1) Alex Rodriguez - New York Yankees
6. (10) David Wright - New York Mets
9. (8) Miguel Cabrera - Detroit Tigers
13. (7) Ryan Braun - Milwaukee Brewers (Yes, I know he is in left field now, but it's the eligibility that counts here)
34. (62) Chone Figgins - Anaheim Angels (Yes, I still refer to them as being from Anaheim... and wtf is Figgins doing rated this high? cuz he can play 2b, too? who the F cares!)
35. (45) Aramis Ramirez - Chicago Cubs
48. (75) Chipper Jones - Atlanta Braves
53. (57) Garrett Atkins - Colorado Rockies

What is the point of posting this for the zero readers that read this? Because I will be playing in a fantasy league using OBP and SLG rather than BA, which is the worst way to evaluate a hitter and yet is the most common way people do.

Chipper Jones is my 2008 pick of the year. He is considered to be "too old" and "too fragile" to be a fantasy star, yet continues to put up numbers similar to, and in some areas, better than the likes of David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Aramis Ramirez,and Ryan Braun. The only 3B that I can put above him without much controversy is Alex Rodriguez, and even Chipper had a better 06 season. Need proof? Here are some numbers for you:

2007 OBP/SLG/XBH
Jones: .425/.604/75
A-Rod: .422/.645/85
Wright: .416/.546/73
Cabrera: .401/.565/74
Braun: .370/.634/66 (22 more while in AAA)
Ramirez: .366/.549/75

162 Game Career Avg.
Jones: .403/.546/72
A-Rod: .389/.578/80
Wright: .388/.533/73
Cabrera: ..388/.542/74
Braun: (He was a rookie! so see above)
Ramirez: .336/.500/69

And here's another stat that may or may not mean anything, but I find it to be amusing. It's called "RC/G" or "Runs Created/Game" meaning that this is what a team full of that player, i.e. 9 Chipper Jones' or 9 A-Rods (HOLY CRAP WOULD THAT BE AWESOME!) with and average defense would score per game.
RC/G: 2007/Career
Jones: 9.5/8.2
A-Rod: 10.4/8.4
Wright: 9.0/7.7
Cabrera: 8.3/7.5
Braun: 8.4/2007 is his career!
Ramirez: 7.3/5.8

So according to this stat, a team of 9 Chippers would on average beat a team of 9 Miguel Cabreras 9.5 - 8.3, more than a full run. If anyone is wondering, Babe Ruth had a career average of 12.6 RC/G and had a season best 17.7 in 1920! How this stat is created I don't know, but most of my numbers come from baseball-reference.com, which is probably the most reliable place to find baseball statistics out there.

Just Food For Thought...